The Las Vegas Perspective quarterly survey examined opinions and attitudes of the Southern Nevada workforce testing sentiments around our region’s economy. This web-based survey was commissioned by Las Vegas Global Economic Alliance and conducted between August and October 2019. 

Since this survey is intended to poll the Clark County workforce, results remove self-selected retirees and unemployed workers as well as self-selected residents of other counties. The sample size of the survey is 500 with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent at the 90 percent confidence interval.

Like the autumn weather settling in across the region, the Southern Nevada economy has begun to show some signs of cooling as we head toward the finish line of 2019. While more sustainable rates of employment and wage growth are inevitable, the trends point toward a more normalized level following an extended period of expansion that placed the Las Vegas metropolitan area among the fastest-growing in the nation. Other key metrics, including consumer spending, tourist visitation, airport passenger volumes and real estate demand, continue to exhibit positive and notable growth trends.

The job market in Southern Nevada remains relatively stable as job gains persist and unemployment rates remain relatively low. The market added 23,100 jobs in the 12 months through September 2019 (latest data available), a 2.3 percent growth rate over the same month of the prior year. The leisure and hospitality sector lead the way with 8,300 new positions over the year, equating to a 2.8 percent growth rate, followed by construction with 5,900 incremental workers (+9.0 percent), and the financial activities sector with 3,700 new jobs (+7.0 percent). The Southern Nevada unemployment rate fell to 4.0 percent in September 2019, a 0.8 percentage point improvement from the prior year. Underlying this trend has been expansion of the regional labor force, which grew by 2.5 percent year over year in September 2019, more than double the national rate of 1.0 percent over the same timeframe.

The region’s year-over-year employment growth rate ranked 10^thamong the 30 largest metropolitan areas, a departure from its usual place among the top 5 in recent months. The growth rate also exceeded the national average of 1.4 percent, but it also registered as the lowest growth rate for the region in roughly seven years. The year-over-year job gain total was also the lowest level experienced in nearly seven years. The slowdown does not merit immediate concern as it likely signals a return to something that looks more like ‘normal’ as opposed to the breakneck pace of the past several years, however, additional months of data tracking will be necessary to gauge the firmness of these trends.

In addition to the performance of job counts, average weekly wages grew to $818.17 on a trailing 12-month basis through September 2019, expanding 2.3 percent over the prior year. Statewide, wage growth on a trailing 12-month basis was reported across most major industries. Construction sector wages led the way, growing 21.8 percent to $1,311, followed by the manufacturing sector wages growing 8.9 percent to $872. Other notable sectors included leisure and hospitality moving to $532 (+4.1 percent); professional and business services growing to $942 (+3.4 percent); retail trade moving to $482 (+2.2 percent).

Consumer spending trends continue showing strong results, with taxable retail sales for the 12 months through July 2019 (latest available) reporting an all-time high of $46.0 billion, 7.4 percent higher than the prior year. The 7.4 percent growth rate marked the seventh consecutive month with a growth rate greater than 7.0 percent. Key contributors to the gains in the past 12 months included sales by non-store retailers (internet sales), which were up 30.0 percent and merchant wholesalers and durable goods (+18.6 percent). On a national level, the Consumer Confidence Index fell to 125.1, a decrease of 7.5 percent on the year.

Southern Nevada’s tourism sector continued its rebound in 2019, with visitation to the Las Vegas area reporting 1.1 percent growth on the year to 42.3 million visitors in the 12 months through August 2019 (latest month available). Convention attendance remained strong at a near-record 6.6 million during the 12 months through August 2019. Meanwhile, trailing 12-month passenger traffic at McCarran International Airport surpassed 50 million for the sixth consecutive month, reaching an all-time high of 50.9 million in the 12 months through September 2019, a 3.2 percent increase over the prior year. Southern Nevada’s gross gaming revenue in the 12 months through August 2019 reached $10.3 billion, a 2.3 percent increase over the prior year. Occupancy metrics suggest a bounce back from nearly two years of decline as the hotel/motel occupancy rate has reported positive growth in four consecutive months to reach 88.6 percent on a trailing 12-month average basis.

The Southern Nevada housing market experienced consistent growth in the third quarter of 2019. According to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, the September 2019 median resale home price in the single-family market rose by 3.3 percent over the past 12 months to $310,000. The median price for condominiums and townhouses reached $171,000 during the month, 0.6 percent higher than the prior year. Overall, home price appreciation in Nevada ranks seventh in the nation with a 6.4 percent growth rate on the year. The rise in home values continues to improve homeowners’ financial situations, as the share of borrowers who owe more than their mortgage balance stood at 3.7 percent in the second quarter in Nevada, which was on par with the national average. Housing supply-demand dynamics remain relatively stable.

Overall, the fundamentals of the Southern Nevada economy remain sound. In addition to economic expansion in nearly every sector of the economy, major capital investments taking place throughout the valley are expected provide stability heading in 2020.